MULTILEVEL CYCLICALITY AND POLITICAL DYNAMICS OF PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION IN THE SYSTEM OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Abstract

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of multi-level economic cyclicality and its effects on the political dynamics of public governance within the system of international relations. The starting premise is that economic development is not linear: it emerges from the interaction of waves of different durations and asymmetric shocks that alter growth trajectories, reallocate resources, and reshape states’ institutional priorities. By distinguishing Kitchin short cycles, Juglar medium-term cycles, Kuznets «building» cycles, and Kondratieff long waves, the article substantiates that macroeconomic dynamics constitute a superposition of fluctuations, in which each «layer» has its own drivers, transmission channels, and political implications.

The study demonstrates that Kitchin short cycles (associated with fluctuations in inventories, demand, and short-term credit activity) increase an economy’s sensitivity to policy errors and informational asymmetries, thereby triggering situational political responses and attempts at «quick fixes» through fiscal or monetary measures. Juglar medium-term cycles (investment — credit cycles) generate more protracted phases of overheating and correction, during which the logic of fiscal discipline changes, the role of central banks becomes more salient, and issues of social justice intensify due to the uneven distribution of benefits and costs. Kuznets «building» cycles, linked to urbanisation, migration, demographic change, and long-horizon infrastructure investment, shape the spatial and social structure of development; consequently, they define the contours of territorial policy, regional inequality, labour-market dynamics, and models of the welfare state. Finally, Kondratieff long waves elevate the analysis to the level of structural technological shifts and global reallocations: within these waves, leading sectors expand or contract, innovation cores change, and global value chains are reconfigured — precisely where policymaking confronts questions of strategic competitiveness, economic sovereignty, and security autonomy.

A central analytical finding is that wars, financial crises, pandemics, and price and technological shocks do not merely «interrupt» cycles; rather, they deform their conventional logic by producing hybrid development trajectories. Under such conditions, classical cyclical regularities become desynchronised: short fluctuations are amplified by panic and information cascades, medium-term cycles by abrupt credit contractions or debt crises, and long waves by discontinuous technological breaks and geo-economic segmentation. This complicates forecasting and public decision-making, as the probability of policy error increases due to implementation lags, conflicting indicator signals, and competing objectives (price stability, employment, defence, and social protection).

In conclusion, the article justifies the use of cyclical analysis as a tool for indicative forecasting of periods of heightened global instability and as a methodological basis for designing more resilient decisions in state economic and security policy. Its value lies not in «predicting dates» but in the early identification of high-risk configurations — when downturn phases of medium-term cycles coincide with structural breaks of long waves, while exogenous shocks accelerate political polarisation and weaken international regimes of cooperation.